What happens if Congressman Bill Young determines all the hoopla over the Walter Reed Hospital scandal is too much and he decides to retire at the end of this term. Can a Democrat win the 10th Congressional District in Florida?
Answer below.
In the comments to my diary on Congressman Young, Progressive America made the statement:
It’s a Dem District
If Young retires, this is a Dem pickup guys. I hope the DCCC will air some ads in this district. It would be very smart to start putting pressure on Young right now.
He then added:
Cook has it at D+1. It would be a very close race, but should go to the Democrats.
PA was referring to the Partisan Voting Index from the Cook Political Report. A D+1 rating means that the district voted at a one percent greater Democratic amount then the nation as a whole based on the 2000 and 2004 elections. I don’t know if the methodology used takes into account that the district was gerrymandered more Republican during the 2002 redistricting.
In a later comment GatorDem points this out:
Unfortunately, FL-10 is a swing district
at best without Young running. Most of the African Americans in South Pinellas were put into FL-11 (Kathy Castor) in the 2002 redistricting. That has left the district with about 20,000 more Rs than Ds.This district could be won when Young retires (or dies), but it would take a very strong, well financed candidate to pull it off.
I was interested in determining what the possibilities were for a well-financed, popular Democratic candidate in an open race, i.e., not against Young (or his wife).
I used the method mentioned in my diary on the 2006 Florida elections. I looked at how well Democrat Alex Sink did against Tom Lee for the Chief Financial Officer race in the District.
The two raised comparable amounts of money, but Sink is a politically astute campaigner who did well throughout the state, not just in predominately Democratic areas. Her results from the 2006 race are a good indicator of what a competent Democratic candidate can achieve.
The results:
Sink 107,711 54.3%
Lee 90,525 45.7%
That definitely looks doable to me.
Originally published at FLAPolitics
And Derek Newton from FLAPolitics was out front on this issue by a year
but Young has to retire first.
And I think even Young is beatable. It’s been ages since he’s had a serious challenger, and the guy is old. I think we need to at least try to challenge and take the district in 2008. I assume that it will be made redder after the next redistricting, so at least if we can get someone in there for two terms, they might have a shot at keeping it in 2012.
Depending on how Crist is doing in 08 we might have a chance. After ten years of republican rule, they might be ready for something new. JEb was popular, but Crist’s popularity remains to be seen and with the entire florida govt controlled by republicans they’ll be no one left to blame, except the repubs. Florida solidly blue 08!